Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Washington Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’rr actually high since double-dip recessionws are rare and the U.S. economy grows 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predicted that the currentr economic downturn will end around September but that the unemploymentt rate will remain high through the firsty half ofnext year. Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usuallyt does aftera recession, Regalia said. Inflation, looms as a potential problen because of thefederal government’s huge budget deficits and the massivw amount of dollars pumped into the economty by the , he said.
If this stimuluds is not unwound once the economy beginszto recover, higher interest rates coulrd choke off improvement in the housing market and busineszs investment, he said. “The economy has got to be runningv on its own by the middle ofnext year,” Regaliq said. Almost every major inflationarg periodin U.S. history was preceded by heavy debt levels, he The chances of a double-dip recession will be lower if Ben Bernankew is reappointed chairman of the Federal Regalia said. If President Obama appointsz hiseconomic adviser, Larry Summers, to chair the Fed, that woule signal the monetary spigot would remainj open for a longer time, he said.
A coalescinvg of the Fed and the Obama administrationis “notr something the markets want to Regalia said. Obama has declined to say whethetr he willreappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in Meanwhile, more than half of smallo business owners expect the recession to last at leastf another two years, according to a survey of Intui Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect theier own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullisuh on their own abilitieas but bearish on the factors they can’t said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Evenm in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunitiezs to seize.
” A separate survey of small busines s owners by found that 57 percent thoughty the economy was getting while 26 percent thought the economuwas improving. More than half planned to decrease spending on businesa development in the nextsix months. on the U.S. Chambedr of Commerce’s Web site.