Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Boston Business Journal:

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffsware beginning, the Business Forecastiny Center at the said in its lates California and Metro Forecast releaserd Wednesday. The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percentt early next year, and will remain in double-digits untipl the end of 2011. The center produces quarterly economic forecasts of theUnitedd States, California and nine metro from Sacramento to Fresno and the San Francisco Bay Area. In the Sacramento unemployment will risefrom 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percentg next year, before dipping to 10.
2 percentg in 2011, the report Unemployment is expected to reacu 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecast to reboun in the third quarterr ofnext year, when job growt h will improve to 0.8 A “strong rebound is expected to take place in professionap and business, and educational and health services sectors,” the reportr said of Sacramento. “Job growth is expected to have its firstr positive full yearat 2.0 percent in 2011.” Sacramento’a real personal income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percenty next year.
San Jose and San Franciscio will be the firstg metro areas in Northern California to returjn totheir pre-recession employment in the second and thircd quarters of 2012, respectively, the studyh said. Sacramento and Merced will be amony the last north state metro areas to regain peak in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallejo is last, with a returm expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Centrak Valley will be hard hit by the combination of recent state tax increases and massive expectesbudget cuts, the Business Forecastingh Center said.
“The state budget crisis is a dangerousz aftershock to a regiob still reeling from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff director of the Business Forecastinv Center, said in a news The Central Valley is an economic disaster but most of its “economif shocks are cyclical in natur e rather than permanent changezs such as closed military bases,” the news release • Construction continues to lead job lossew in percentage terms, declining another 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. Manufacturing will lead the declinein 2009, losingy 135,000 jobs this year. • Retail sales will not return to theirf 2007 leveluntil 2011. New car and truck sales will fallbelo 1.
06 million in 2009, after exceeding 2 million for most of the Sales will gradually increase as the economy recovers, reaching 1.46 million next and 1.73 million in 2011. Housing starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,00 0 units, more than 80 percent belowe the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housing startz will be back to 100,000 units in 2011, and exceefd 150,000 by 2013. Health care is the only sector that will not shrink this year. The gain of 13,00p health care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowestf growth this decade. • Personal incomes declines 0.8 percent in 2009. • Nonfarm payrollsw will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewidd during the two-year recession.
• The California economy will finally hit bottom in the fourth quarter of this and will begina slow, multi-yearf recovery. It will be 2013 beford many key economic indicators such as unemploymenrt return tohealthy levels. • The state’s recessiohn should end in the last quarter of this but the job market will remaim weak through most ofnext year.