Growth Summit speakers offer bleak outlook - Houston Business Journal:

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The recession was the main topivc at the thirdannuak event, held at the Wortha m Center, with all three speakers offering a bleak forecast for the next 18 But the bottom is in sight as job lossew ease and lending begins to pick up. “It’x not yet to the point where it is getting said keynotespeaker M. Ray president of Waco-based financial analysisw firm ThePerryman Group. But, “It is gettingf worse at a slower rate,” he said. “Wde are nearing the bottom of the bowl.” The creditf crisis is only now beginning to righf itself aslending thaws, Perryman said. “The critical thing is that credit hasto flow, and that has been he said.
The real estate market has a long way to go beforreit recovers, said Ted Jones, senior vice president and chiedf economist at Stewart Titld Guaranty Co. “There is enough commercial propert y coming on line to make it tough for real estates for a long Jones said. “We are going to see some foreclosures incommercial lending.” But because of stabld pricing throughout the Houston residential real estate is stilkl faring better than the rest of the Jones said. “Houston didn’tt play the price bubble,” he said. One bright spot may be multifamiltreal estate.
Jones said the city’s demographics will causde multifamily developments to be in demanc when theeconomy recovers. “That will be the first to turn,” he Changes in the energy, housing and global trad markets have caused the recession to catcjh up withthe once-sheltered Houstohn economy, said Adriana Fernandez, an economist with the Federal Reservse Bank of Dallas, Houstojn Branch. “We were growing in a counter-cyclical fashioj (to the rest of the nation) when energy prices were Fernandez said. With gas prices dropping, the recession is beginning to creep into thelocal economy.
Houston is no longed outperforming thenational economy, Fernandez said, but added that she doesn’t see unemployment surpassing the nationap average.